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voluntary risk. Space Access recommended an individual risk threshold of Ec < 1 x 10-7. Space Access at 11. The
FAA anticipates that a better explanation of what Ec measures and the differences between individual and
collective risk will respond to Space Access’ arguments against an Ec of 30 x 10-6. In short, when expressed in
terms of individual risk, the FAA’s collective risk measure satisfies the concerns voiced by Space Access. Space Access also maintains that a comparison to voluntary risk is inappropriate and that involuntary risk provides the better measure. The FAA, however, like the Air Force, defines background risk as the risk voluntarily accepted in the course of day to day activities, and finds that voluntary risk provides an acceptable basis of comparison for determining acceptable risk. Moreover, even when compared to involuntary risk, as Space Access recommends, if the FAA’s collective risk measure is described in terms of its individual risk counterpart, the measure compares favorably.
Section 415.35(a) requires that acceptable flight risk through orbital insertion for an orbital launch vehicle, and through impact for a suborbital launch vehicle, be measured in terms of collective risk. Pursuant to section 415.35 (a), the collective risk associated with debris from an applicant's proposed launch, measured by casualty expectancy, shall not exceed 0.00003 (30 x 10-6) casualties per launch. Ec represents the FAA’s measure of the
collective risk to the population exposed to the launch of a launch vehicle. The measure represents the expected average number of casualties for a specific launch mission. In other words, if there were thousands of the same mission conducted and all the casualties were added up and the sum divided by the number of missions, the answer
and the mission’s expected casualty should statistically be the same. This Ec value defines acceptable collective risk.
Collective risk is estimated prior to launch, and constitutes the sum total launch related risk to that part of the public exposed to the hazards of a launch. The public includes everyone except launch personnel. Government personnel who are not essential to a launch are defined as the public for purposes of measuring acceptable risk.
The FAA’s standard derives from launch risk guidance employed by the Air Force at its Eastern Range, Cape Canaveral Air Station, and its Western Range, Vandenberg Air Force Base, to define acceptable risk. The FAA adopts this standard because the FAA believes that commercial launches should not expose the public to risk greater than normal background risk, which the FAA defined in its NPRM as those risks voluntarily accepted in the course of normal day-to-day activities. The FAA is using the Air Force standard because it reflects the standard already in place for the majority of commercial U.S. launches, and for the majority of government launches of vehicles of a comparable size. No casualties arising out of a government or commercial launch have occurred to the public under this standard. It is the FAA’s understanding that although the Air Force published this figure in 1995, it did so because it found that this figure best represented historical launch risk levels.
The FAA is aware that the Air Force implements this standard as "acceptable launch risk without high management (Range Commander) review." "Eastern and Western Range 127-1 Range Safety Requirements," Sec. 1.4.1, 1-12. This means that based on national need and the approval of a range or wing commander the Air Force may allow a launch with a predicted expected casualty risk of greater than 30 x 10-6. Id. As mentioned in the NPRM, the FAA recognizes that many commercial launches carry government payloads, and that there may be a national need to launch a critical national payload with a predicted launch risk of greater than 30 x 10-6. An applicant proposing to launch a government payload, where the launch would not meet the FAA’s risk requirement, would have to request a waiver from the FAA and show that national need warranted waiver of this standard. The FAA would work with any government payload owner or operator to resolve such an issue. The FAA establishes this standard, however, for all commercial launches, so that the general public will not be exposed to a higher than normal risk from a commercial activity.
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Commercial Space Transportation Licensing Regulations(30)
