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world economy spiralling into recession as predicted. Airlines
are also relieved by the fact that demand for air transport
remains strong despite geopolitical tensions, increased
security in the face of terrorist threats, as well as a number of
other global economic, political or health issues.
The reality is that, in the two years 2003-2005, the share of
fuel in the cost base of the Association of European Airlines’
(AEA) member airlines jumped from 12 per cent to 20 per
cent. Their total fuel bill in 2005 was US$17 billion.
There are two schools of thought as to where fuel prices will
go next: one believes fuel prices will fall again, the other is less
optimistic. If it had to take a stance on the issue, the AEA would
probably err towards the belief that there will never be a return
to the heyday years of $30 a barrel, and that prices will remain
high for some time ahead. “If that is the case, then high fuel
costs are something the airlines are going to have to live with,
and indeed are learning to live with,” says David Henderson,
Manager Information with the AEA. The Association says its
airlines continue to realise non-fuel cost savings, but stresses
these are limited in scale by a process of diminishing returns.
CONTROLLING
FUEL COSTS
A
Reducing capacity
does not generate
growth, neither does it
cut costs proportionately
in the short term
ATM: THE CHALLENGE OF GROWTH
60
Three steps to improving financial performance
For airlines, there are essentially three variables to improving
their financial performance. The first is to improve yield, the
second to reduce costs and the third to increase load factor.
These three variables interact with each other and load
factors, for example, can be improved by reducing capacity or
attracting additional traffic. Reducing capacity does not
generate growth, neither does it cut costs proportionately in
the short term, and adding traffic only helps if it is not done
at the expense of yield, ie, by slashing fares. Similarly there are
severe constraints on improving yield because that involves
putting up prices in an environment that is more competitive
than it has ever been as a result of the profusion of no-frills
carriers. “So, improving yields is an option with only limited
potential, and there is general consensus among airlines that
they cannot rely on improving load factors,” says Henderson.
2005 saw a continued improvement in the load factor of
AEA member airlines, adding an estimated US$284 million to
the collective operating surplus. This led to a second
consecutive year of surplus, up from US$413 million in 2004
to US$755 million in 2005.
But in its 2006 Yearbook, the AEA warns this is an area
where “the scope for year-on-year improvement diminishes
each time the boundary is pushed further out. Fifteen years
ago an annual figure of 70 per cent would have been
regarded as probably the limit of attainment; the 2005 figure
was 76 per cent”.
Similarly, it warns: “In the highly-competitive markets in
which the AEA airlines operate, yield improvements will be
difficult to achieve.”
The last option, therefore, is controlling and reducing costs:
“an exercise in diminishing returns,” says Henderson, “because
once you have cut a cost, you can’t cut it a second time.”
61
Hedging one’s bets
In a bid to minimise the impact of rising fuel prices, many
airlines use hedging to stabilise prices for as long as they can.
According to the AEA, hedging has helped airlines absorb
about 50 per cent of the fuel increase over the last year.
However, Henderson points out that, once existing contracts,
negotiated at favourable prices, expire, airlines would
probably have to face the full reality of high fuel prices.
“In one respect, hedging is an illusory gain,” says
Henderson. “If the airlines benefit significantly from hedging,
they do so at the expense of the oil companies. And while the
oil companies may tolerate this in the short term, they won’t
let it happen over a sustained period.”
The AEA Yearbook points out that: “While airlines typically
hedge against strong price increases in the form of mediumterm
contracts, such a protracted increase means that expiring
contracts are having to be renewed at much higher prices.
Fuel remains very expensive, and market prices will continue to
inflate the cost of hedging contracts as they are renewed.”
On the revenue side, most major European carriers have
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Partnership for Performance and Growth.(20)
