Business Aviation Safety Brief(7)

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Two assessments were made. First, the analysts made the assumption based on indicators that the flight department may have implemented the IS-BAO, and if implemented, the potential for accident avoidance.  The accidents were then further analyzed to determine the potential outcome given that the IS-BAO was implemented in full before the accident. An audit by an accredited auditor leading to an IBAC Certificate of Registration is the recommended means of demonstrating full implementation.
As part of the analysts’ work, the accidents were classified in a number of different ways to see if there were any meaningful trends in the prevention probability between the different factors. Classification methodologies applied include:
1.
Simple Four Factors – Human, Technical, Environmental and Management.

2.
Events – or significant type of accident (such as loss of control).

3.
Breakdown on Human Factors.

4.
Boeing Accident Prevention Strategies.

Probabilities were calculated for all accidents, phase of fight, type of accident, four factors (per above), type of operation, Commercial or non-commercial, fatalities and single versus two pilot operations.
A further step in the methodology included a quality assurance analysis by a group of current pilots through an assessment of a random selection of twelve accidents as a means of verifying the results of the analysts. 

Results of Analysis
Criteria A
Assumes Operators Had Completely Implemented IS-BAO Prior to the Occurrence.
This part of the analysis made the assumption that the operator had implemented the IS-BAO
standard in full.  An assessment was then made regarding the potential that the accident could
have been prevented. The following were the results of the assessment.

Certain of prevention 36.0% (107 of 297 accidents)
Probable prevention 21.2% (63 of 297)
Possible prevention 12.8% (38 of 297)
Doubtful of prevention 14.5% (43 of 297)
No prevention possibility 15.5% (46 of 297)

None
16%

Certain Doubtful
36% 15%

Possible 13% Probable
21%

Conclusion - The probability of prevention is 57.2%, with a further 12.8% possible for a total of 70% potential that the aircraft accident could have been avoided.

Criteria B
Takes into Account Operators Background and Probability of Introduction of IS-BAO.
The assessment of whether the accident may have been prevented if the flight department had
known about the IS-BAO, and if the operator was sufficiently responsible to implement the
standard and had done so thoroughly, produced the following results:

Certain of prevention 17.2% (51 of 297 accidents)
Probable prevention 20.2% (60 of 297)
Possible prevention 23.9% (71 of 297)
Doubtful of prevention 19.2% (57 of 297)
No prevention possibility 19.5% (58 of 297)

None Certain
Doubtful

Probable 19%
20%

Possible 24%
Conclusion - The probability of prevention is 37.4%, with a further 23.9% possible for a total of 61.3% potential that the aircraft accident could have been avoided.
Criteria C
Probability of Prevention by Types of Operation and Aircraft.
The analysis showed that there is a greater probability that the accident could have been pre-vented for jet aircraft type accidents versus turboprop. This was a trend consistent through most methods of analysis and type of accident, although in some cases there was little to dis-tinguish between jet and turboprop probabilities. For example, for the landing accidents (the most common type of accident) the probability of prevention was much greater for jets than tur-boprop aircraft. Yet, for loss of control accidents there was substantially no difference.  The reason for the difference considered by the analysts was that there would be a greater potential for prevention in two pilot operations more typical in jet aircraft.  
　
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