Developing a Safety Management System for Fatigue Related Risks in easyJet(9)

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The performance of the new proposed 5/2/5/4 roster pattern was monitored by the HFMP that included:
. A company network Line Operations Safety Audit (LOSA, incorporating Performance
Information System (WinBASIS);
. Archive Crew Duty hours; Archive Crew Sickness rates; Archive crew turnover rates; 
. Roster stability data. 
It was hypothesized that a significant improvement in crew threat and error management would be recorded as a function of a ‘slow wave’ duty pattern designed to minimize circadian disruption throughout the roster period, duty days one to five (‘early’ and ‘late’ duty period), as recorded by the LOSA University of Texas Threat and Error Model.  Further, it was predicted that a higher rate of threat and error mis-management would be observed on the duty days on which circadian disruption is expected to manifest.
S. Stewart, F. Koornneef, R. Akselsson, and C. Turner  - HILAS 2009
It was also hypothesized that cumulative fatigue effects through the ‘5254’ pattern would be less prevalent as a function of threat and error management -mediated by the number of sectors operated in a given day and the number of days operated in a given roster period. The study reviews crew performance on selected schedule days to investigate if any measured performance degradation is attributable to circadian disruption of flight crew. This allows evaluation of crew performance throughout a regular shift pattern under the ‘5254’ roster. The study collected data to ascertain if a correlation exists between crew fatigue levels, as a function of rostered duty day; ‘early’ slow wave duty pattern; ‘late’ slow wave duty pattern; sector number and crew performance, as measured
decreased significantly again by duty day six to 78%. Threat management by crews was found to be consistently superior under the ‘5254’ pattern compared to the ‘6&3’. This remained at an average of 96% with no evidence of cumulative fatigue effects on performance (One-Way ANOVA, p>0.05, not significant between duty days and not significant between ‘early’ and ‘late’ duties). This indicates that crews are alert and managing event risks consistently well throughout the schedule, lending support to the second hypothesis, namely that minimizing circadian disruption in the shift schedule manifests as a reduction in crew cumulative fatigue performance decrements.

S. Stewart, F. Koornneef, R. Akselsson, and C. Turner  - HILAS 2009

The British Airline Pilots Association (BALPA) was the recognized union through which
company management could negotiate any changes to crew terms and conditions of
service. The ‘5254’-roster pattern had to be subject to a vote, after approval by the
regulating authority, by membership before the pattern could be implemented across the
company network. 65% of the BALPA membership contingent voted on the new pattern,
　
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